High birth rate dims Kenya’s long-term growth prospects

The challenge facing Kenya in providing physical and social infrastructure became clear on Tuesday with the release of 2009 Census results showing that the country’s population is growing at a pace that is out of tune with its development goals.

Kenya is facing the grim reality of feeding additional one million mouths every year – translating to a population growth rate of 2.8 per cent above the global average of 2.1 per cent requiring the economy to grow at the rate of more than 12 per cent to remain in step with its development targets.

The Census results indicate that Kenya’s population now stands at 38.6 million placing huge hurdles on the country’s path towards the realisation of Vision 2030 – the development blueprint that aims to make Kenya an industrialised economy in 20 years.

Many analysts now agree that the realisation of that vision will largely depend on how fast the country moves to slow down the rate at which its population is growing mainly because of the pressure it exerts on the provision of public goods and services.

“We urgently need a strategy to contain the spiralling population to realise the Vision 2030,” said Mugo Kibati, the director at the Kenya Vision 2030 Secretariat. “This should be supported by initiatives to improve the quality of life where people have access to key services such as education and health,” said Mr Kibati.

The high rate of population growth has huge implications on government spending in infrastructure, health, education, environment, water and other social economic sectors.

“Population growth is usually a positive indicator if managed well but an annual growth rate of more than two per cent poses immediate threat to government’s efforts to reduce poverty,” said Mr Zama Chi, the UNFPA’s Programme Officer in charge of the African Division.

Economists estimate that with a growth rate of 2.8 per cent Kenya’s economy needs to grow at neck-break speed of 13 per cent for a decade – with the three per cent catering for the new mouths -- and the 10 per cent propelling the country towards the achievement of the Vision 2030 targets.

“To achieve the Vision 2030 goals critical investment will be required in family planning services, health and other social and economic sectors to improve the welfare of Kenyans,” said Wycliffe Oparanya, the Planning minister.

Of immediate concern, said Mr Oparanya, is investment in education to meet the demands of the growing school age population and the demand for manpower.

That assessment means that despite concerns that education is already taking up more than its fair share of national resources at Sh140 billion in the current fiscal year.

Census results showed that 14.1 million people were attending school last, another 14.2 million had left school at various levels and that 6.1 million had not attended school at all.

School attendance by those aged more than three years rose to a record 40 per cent last year, reversing a decline from 37 per cent in 1989 to 35 per cent a decade later.

Another 13.5 million Kenyans are pursuing studies at universities, secondary and primary school levels, raising the possibility of tax-payers being asked to pay more for increased allocation to the sector.